Sunday, March 13, 2016

Project Manhattan Session #10 - Making Sets and Getting Screwed with Draws Part II

Looking back at Session #9 I made a straight draw and lost to a bigger straight and missed a 12 out flush draw + gut shot combo.

In Session #8 I missed a pair plus a flush draw draw and in other draw related news got my pocket kings squashed in a $1,000+ pot by a guy building a flush around the 5 of clubs on a 4 club board.

In session #10 I missed 5 (yes 5!) draws in hands of consequence and looking back I haven't actually made a straight or flush draw and won the pot since Session #6. I have an active streak of about 18 hours of play since I brought home a pot with a flush or a straight. Not good.

I got off to a good start when someone moved all in for $175 against a straddle and a couple of $10 callers and I looked down at KK. It held up. But then I blew it right back when a guy who had raised four or five straight hands and was on meltdown tilt managed to find AK against my AJ. We both made trip aces so I'm glad he only had $175!

I dribbled off $200 in unexciting ways over about 90 minutes and then I got dealt 77. A mid twenties dude with a big beard and enormous headphones who was two to my right came in for a raise to $15, I called and and older guy who kept getting rivered came along too. The flop came down K T 7, which was a bonkers good flop for me. Mr. Headphones bet $15, I decided to slow play and just called and Old Man River called as well. The turn was an A and Mr. Headphones bet $15 again which was only 1/6 of the pot. I briefly considered that he might have AA or KK given his odd bet sizing, but raising was really the only option. I made it $100 to go and to my surprise Old Man River went all in for $250. Then Mr. Headphones quickly just called. That seemed really weird to me. With just about any hand I'd expect him to either put me all in or fold. Anyway, I wasn't folding so I moved all in for $420 and Mr. Headphones called. Old Man River immediately flashed QJ for the nut straight and I was a little worried Mr. headphones might have AK meaning I'd need a T or a 7 to drag the pot. The river came out and it was...a ten! Zing! I showed my hand and Mr. Headphones quickly mucked. Old Man River went on a mini tirade about getting rivered again and headed for the door.

Does this count as making a draw? I don't know, but I'm in bitch fest mode so I'm not counting it!

There was $1,180 in that pot which meant I was ahead $480 on the night. I was feeling good and planning to play a long session if things continued to go well. Then my parade of misfortune began.

DRAW #1 - I called a raise to $20 in a 6 way pot with T9 of hearts and the flop came down K J 7 with one heart and two spades. The first player to act on the flop was a short stack and he moved all in for $78 into the $120 pot. Everyone folded to me. Against a hand like Ax of spades or Kx I'd win about 1/3 of the time and getting 2.5 to 1 on my money, with no more betting this felt like a profitable call. Looking at the odds now it turns out that against anything but a set I'd be getting the right price to call and even against KK I'd be 27% to win. The turn was a 2 and the river was a 4 of spades and I lost to...wait for it...72 of spades! GAH!

(Sort of a) DRAW #2 -  I came in for a raise to $20 with QQ in the cutoff, the button called and then a player who just sat down made it $90 to go out of the small blind. He started the hand with about $500 and I had him covered. Against an aggressive opponent I'd probably 4 bet here, but I didn't know this guy at all. I was a little worried if I made it $220 or $240 I'd lose all the worse hands and get 5 bet all in by AA or KK. So I just called. The flop was J T 6 which looked terrible since I was hoping he had a hand like JJ or TT before the flop. But then he checked. Hoping he had AK or AQ, but also thinking he might have JJ I bet out $100. My opponent quickly called. The turn looked like the worst card in the deck, a king. Now I couldn't beat any hand that would three bet preflop, and check call the flop. But on the bright side I did pick up a straight draw. My opponent checked and I checked it back. The river was a 4 and he checked again. Now I was really confused. I checked it back and he showed KK for a set of kings! What an odd way for him to play that hand.

DRAW #3 - I called a min raise to $10 four way with J9 and a guy who hand limped for $5 and then called the min raise came out firing for $20 on a Q T 5 board. I decided to be aggressive with my open ended straight draw. I made it $60 and then he three bet it to $160! ACK! Unfortunately he only had another $100 behind which would certainly be going in on the turn. If I wanted to draw essentially I'd be risking $200 to win $360 which was not the right price. I folded.

DRAW #4 - I raised to $20 with QJ of hearts and a tough regular player made it $60 to go. I called and the flop came down 9 5 4 with two hearts. I figured my opponent would bet close to 100% of the time after three betting and sure enough after I checked he fired out $70 into the $120 pot. He'd started the hand with $400 so he had another $270 behind. This was pretty much the perfect amount for him to have as I wouldn't be risking a crazy amount to semi-bluff raise all in, but he was no where near pot committed. I decided to go for it and put him all in. He quickly called. The turn was a Q giving me hope that I'd caught up to JJ or TT or even A high hearts. The river was a black 2 and I saw that I'd run into KK again. Drat!

Around this point I was stuck $400 on the night. But then I won a few small pots and crawled my way back to the point where I was sitting with $700 in front of me in for $900 on the night. I was closing in on the 4 hour mark on the session and decided to play one more round before leaving.

DRAW #5 - I was in seat 8, seat 5 called $5, seat 7 made it $15 to go, I called with T8 of spades and we took the flop 3 way. Seat 5 and seat 7 are both weak predictable players that I've played with before. The tend to buy in for $200 or $300 and tend to play scared. Seat 5 had been running hot and had run his small buy in up to about $900. The flop came down 9 4 3 with one spade and two hearts, seat 5 checked, seat 7 bet $25 and I decided to float. I didn't have anything, but that bet of $25 into the $50 pot wasn't exactly a strong bet, so I figured I'll call the flop and maybe put the heat on on the turn. Seat 5 called as well and the turn came out the 6 of spades. This was a great card for me as I went from nothing to a combo straight and flush draw. Both players checked to me, my plan was coming together as expected, and I fired out $105 into the $150 pot. To my surprise seat 5 min raised me to $210! This was a major alarm bells raise. A check raise on the turn is almost always a huge hand. A min raise on the turn is almost always a huge hand. Put them together and this looked like a set. But there was $440 in the pot and I only needed to call another $105 for a shot at my combo draw. This was an easy call. The river was the 2 of hearts making the board 9 4 3 6 2. The front door flush draw had come in and there was a one liner to a straight out there as well. My opponent quickly checked. I looked down at my stack and saw that I had almost a pot sized bet left. Actually I had $422 and there was $545 out there, but it was pretty close and in the moment it looks like the pot was a little smaller. I still thought my opponent had a set, but I also thought of him as scared. I thought there was a chance he might fold to a big bet with that scary board. I didn't think about it too long, I just went for it and moved all in. After about 15 seconds my opponent called. And showed 65! Son. Of. A. Bitch.

I was 41% to win on the turn, but the real pain of this hand comes through when you realize that the 2 of hearts is the only card in the deck that can come on the river where I lose my whole stack. If a 7 comes he makes a straight, but I make a bigger one. If he doesn't make a straight he might bet again and win or it might go check check on the river or if I bet at it there is no way he's calling with one pair of sixes. That is literally the only card where he checks, I bet and he calls. Anything else and at least I save the $422 on the river.

I'm also left questioning my play. The way it went down all makes sense. I don't think I made any huge errors, but I certainly could have just pitched it on the flop. Or I could have left one round earlier. Or I could have just checked back the river. Anyway, how ever you slice it, it sucked.

I lost $900 on the night and am now down $116 over 38.5 hours.

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