An Event #3 Update

I thought I'd put an update up for anyone who might check this this evening.

I just heard from EB that he had spoken with Dave and they have under 200 people left and he has about $14,000 in chips. According to pokerpages.com the average stack is currently 8265, so he's doing really well!

They are going to play tonight until they're down to under 100 players.

Apparently Dave got to play with Chris Ferguson for awhile! It sounds like he should have some good stories for us tonight!

Event #3 Preview

After an early exit today I find myself extremely bored. I should probably head to the poker room and make some money, but I want to be fresh for tomorrow and this is a marathon not a sprint so I'm holding off. I did, however, break down and head to the craps table for an hour. I wanted to play Pai Gow (my favorite casino game), but all they had going was $50 and $100 minimum tables and I was looking for a little relaxation, not drama. In fact the minimums at all the table games were at the levels you'd expect to see on a holiday weekend. I'm sure they were looking to capitalize on people trying to get even for their $1,500 tournament loss today. I did not fall into their trap, picked up a quick $160 profit at the craps table and headed back to my room.

Tomorrow is $1,500 pot limit hold 'em. Last year there were 1071 entrants (I'd expect 1200-1500 tomorrow), 1st place was $369,535, 9th place was $29,560 and 100th place was $1,625. A few reasons why this event draws a smaller crowd than event #2 are: some of the players are still playing event #2, the people only playing one event usually go for the first one, and for some reason people don't like pot limit as much as no limit. What's the difference you ask? In no limit you can bet any amount up to all the chips you have in front of you at any time while in pot limit you can only bet up to the size of the pot. For example if there are 800 chips in the pot and the blinds are 50/100, you can bet any amount between 100 and 800 chips (you can't bet less than the amount of the big blind). It gets a little tricky before the flop to determine the size of the pot (secretly I think this is why people don't like pot limit) and consequently how much you can raise. If the blinds are 50/100 and you're first to act you can make it 350. What? There's only 150 in the pot how can you make it 350? Well the answer is you have to call the 100 before you can raise so what you're actually doing is calling 100 and raising 250 for a total of 350. If someone calls in front of you, you can bet between 100 and 450. If someone were to raise to 350 in front of you, you could make it up to 1200 (50+100+350+350=the pot so you put in 350 for the call and 850 more for the raise). You see a lot of guys sitting there and you can tell they are thinking "uh how much can I make it?" I can understand everyone having to think about it a little (especially in a reraise situation), but it drove me nuts in last years WSOP when we'd been playing 100/200 blinds for an hour and some clown says "how much can I make it" when he's the first one in the pot, we've been playing for 5 hours and everyone's been opening for 700 for the past hour. What are we playing for pennies on the kitchen table here? I suppose some people would tell you they don't like pot limit because it limits the amount you can bet, but what's stupid about that is you shouldn't be betting more than the pot anyway in at least 90% of situations. If you bet more than the pot you're generally risking more than you should be to win what's in there. I suppose I'd have a 51% preference for no limit, but I really don't care. I'll let you all know how it went tomorrow.

A few pictures

This is what the tournament area looked like a few minutes before the tournament started. Notice how you can't even see the far side of the room. Every one of those overhead lights has a table under it with 11 players and a dealer. Also there are even more tables to the left and the right that didn't make it into the photo. It's truly amazing.
Here is a picutre of the outside of the tournament area where a bunch of booths have been set up to sell goods and services to poker players. The most common tactic is to use flusies wearing tight clothes (like the two under the B of the absolute poker sign) to get the attention of the 90% male crowd.



This is what I did to the guy who eliminated me from the tournament! Let this be a lesson to you all not to cross me! I'll try to get some more photos (maybe some that don't suck)tomorrow.

Event #2 Recap (Yuck!)

Event #2? What happened to event #1? Well event #1 was actually a $500 casino employees event so this was actually event #2. The short version is, I didn't make the money, but there isn't anything I could have done differently.

Here's the long version. We started with 208 tables that each had 11 players (it's almost always 9 or 10, but sometimes in tournaments they squeeze another player in until a few players have been eliminated and then go to 10), which is 2288 players. But there was also a list of alternates. As players get eliminated they are replaced by alternates who start with the same number of chips that everyone else started with. By the first break we already had 500 alternates in the field (meaning 500 other players had already been eliminated). I'll let you know how many they ended up with tomorrow, but they said other than the main event of last years WSOP (which had over 5600 entrants) it was largest in person field in poker history. Every Sunday I play two $215 buy-in online tournaments that usually have around 5,000 entrants so I'm used to playing against big fields, but let me tell you it's much different to see all those people in one place. It's hard enough trying to beat the players at your own table, but it seem like a monumental task to beat the thousands sitting at tables that stretch on for what seems like forever. With that said, I like my chances against the competition I've seen so far.

We started with 1500 chips and the blinds a 25/25 with the limits increasing every 60 minutes. Someone went broke on what must have been the first hand, because they were calling for alternates right out of the gate. I spent most of the first hour sitting there not doing much other than observing my opponents. I did win one pot when the most aggressive player at our table, who'd been involved in over half the pots to that point, opened for a raise to 75. I looked down at two jacks and make it 225. Everyone folded to the original raiser and he called my raise. The flop came down A 7 5 and he checked. I bet 300 and he quickly folded. Winning that pot, my first at this years WSOP, was the highlight of my tournament. Not too exciting. I stole the blinds (meaning I raised before the flop and everyone folded) 3 or 4 times and picked up another small pot after seeing a free flop from the big blind, but my stack hovered right around 1500 the whole time. About half way into round 3 with the blinds at 50/100 I picked up AA in the small blind. Everyone folded around to me and I raised to 250. A standard raise from the small blind would be 300-400 but I kept it small because I had the best possible starting hand and the fellow in the big blind was an extremely tight player (meaning he plays very few hands). I certainly didn't want to scare him away with a big raise. He called and the flop came down K Q 7. I figured this was a great flop. I wanted some action with my great cards, it was likely that he called me with big cards (like QJ, KJ, K 10, etc) and unless he had KQ or 77 I had him beat (I ruled out KK or QQ because he certainly would have reraised me preflop with those holdings). I bet out 250 and he went all in for about 1200. I quickly called and he showed me KQ. Yuck! I still had outs (cards left in the deck that would give me the best hand) as any A would give me three of a kind and any 7 would give me a higher two pair. A four on the turn gave me 3 more outs (two A's, three 7's and three 4's), but a 6 on the river gave my opponent the pot and eliminated me from the tournament. AA is an 87% favorite to win against KQ, so clearly this was a bad break. It wasn't the result I was looking for, but there wasn't anything I could have done differently so I have to be happy with the way I played.

As far as celebrity opponents go I played against a fellow who apparently finished 4th at the WPT championship event at the Bellagio in 2004 and against Eric Froehlich who was the youngest player to ever win a bracelet when he won an event last year at 21 years 4 months. This year he seems fatter, smuger and less attractive and believe me it takes A LOT to stand out in those categories when it comes to poker players. To sum up, no good today, but I'll get 'em tomorrow.

I made it to Vegas and I'm ready to go

I arrived in Vegas after a bumpy flight around 6:30 p.m. and after getting my bags, discovered the shortest taxi line I've ever seen at the LV airport. For those of you who haven't seen, it the Vegas airport taxi line must be one of the seven wonders of the transportation world. It consists of 5 rows of dividers each about 100 yards long that lead people up and down a stretch of sidewalk like they were waiting for an amusement park ride. Sometimes, like today, you walk straight to the front and get in a cab. Other times, like a Friday night, (when everyone who's just in town for the weekend has arrived) you can find yourself waiting behind over a thousand people. The cabs swoop in, in groups of 20 and scoop up passengers only to be followed by 20 more so even though you're standing in line it's more like a constant slow walk. The first time I saw that line on a Friday I thought we'd be in line for the entirety of our three day trip, but it only took about 15 minutes. It's really quite amazing.

It's also very unusual for me to arrive in Vegas, head straight to my room, and stay there all night. Usually I push the hotel room door open, chuck the bags in, and am back in the elevator headed for the tables before my bags hit the ground. But, this is going to be a different kind of trip. No drinking, no table games, all business. I'm going to take any edge I can over my opponents and if that means getting to sleep at 11:30 p.m. in a town where some of the bars don't open until 2 a.m. then that's what I'm going to do.

Tomorrow the 2006 WSOP kicks off with a $1,500 No Limit Hold 'em event. Last year this event drew 2,305 entrants, 1st place was $725,405, 9th was $54,075 and 200th paid $2,225. Also of interest, a fellow named Charlie Huff (no relation) finished 6th and won $136,780. This year there should be at least the same turn out. I wouldn't be shocked to see 3,000 people show up wanting to play, but I'm not sure they are set up to accommodate that many players at one time (they split the first day of the main event into several days to handle the huge fields). I'm already signed up so I won't be one of the one's getting shut out. I'll post again tomorrow and let you all know how it went for me (hopefully it won't be over and I'll be preparing for day 2 of my first event). It would be great to start out with a money finish, but this tournament is only 5% of my $30,000 bankroll so if I don't succeed it will be a minor setback at most.

Doesn't look like $30,000 does it?

For those of you who've always wondered if those sneaky Hollywood executives have been tricking you, now you can see for yourselves what thirty grand looks like. Sometimes I've seen in movies where they use a briefcase or even a duffel bag to carry $50,000, but clearly it's for show. Hopefully I'll show you all what a much much bigger pile of money looks like in a few weeks.

A fun story from last years WSOP

I've had a request to tell a story from last year's WSOP that was a little amusing. One of the coolest things about going to the WSOP was getting an in person look at the worlds best and most famous poker players. They were walking around everywhere. I found myself doing double takes left and right. I'd be sitting at the table playing and I'd think "wow that guy looks an awful lot like Johnny Chan....holy shit that's Johnny Chan!" This happened no less than ten times.

Even cooler than strolling by the world's best was getting a chance to play against a few of them. Among the best were Julian Gardner (the main event runner up in 2002), Layne Flack (who won back to back preliminary events in 2002), and Howard Lederer (who has won multiple World Poker Tour (WPT) events and is a fan favorite). In most competitive arenas where money is at stake you want to play against weaker competition, but having one extremely strong player at your table in a poker game is not particularly detrimental. About 80% of the time I look at my first two cards and fold them and for the most part other good players do the same, so it's rare that you butt heads with one specific player over and over. I looked at it as a positive to play against the star competition so I could observe their tactics (I also thought it was just plain cool). I didn't get to observe Layne Flack for very long, however, because I busted him 30 minutes into the tournament.

And then there was Phil Helmuth. In 1989 Helmuth became the youngest main event champ in history by winning it at age 24. He has 9 WSOP bracelets (3rd most all time) and last year became the first player to ever have 50 career money finishes at the WSOP. Around 3 p.m. in my second event, I was moved to a new table and found myself sitting directly across from Phil. Two hours later we'd been playing for five hours total and were still over an hour short of the dinner break. Phil was starting to get hungry and mentioned that fact to the table. A few minutes later he asked if anyone had any food. No one did. Of course there was food relatively near by at a snack bar area, but it would take at least five minutes to meander through the hundreds of poker tables, make a purchase and return to the game. Phil was running short on chips and so every hand was critical. Between hands he stood up and went over to Chris Ferguson (the 2000 main event champ who always wears a cowboy hat and is often called "Jesus" because he has long hair and a beard) and asked if he "had any snacks." Chris did not and Phil found himself back a square 1. Suddenly he looked down on the floor. EUREKA! He reached down and pulled up an open box of graham crackers. There were a few left inside and he said to the guy next to him "are these yours?" The fellow replied "I just got here." I could see the gears turning in his head. He asked if they belonged to anyone else but it seemed they were up for grabs. So with everyone's attention on him he took one out, looked at it and was about to take a bite when I said "Come to Las Vegas, where you can see a millionaire eat food he found on the floor." Everyone including Phil and the dealer had a good laugh. When the laughs died down he put them back on the floor (perhaps for some other hungry player to find) and a few minutes later ran off to the snack bar.

What do I really expect to happen

The most likely result of my trip is a loss. If I was to go play this same set of tournaments 1,000 times I have no doubt that my net result would be positive, (and that's why I'm going). But, it would probably be the result of 750 losing trips and 250 winning ones. The key is the wins would tend to be much, much larger than the losses.

Last year (in my first year at the WSOP) I played in three events and even though I had a net loss I would classify the trip as a success (probably a B or a B- on my scale). The first event I played in was a $2,500 No Limit Hold 'em event and I finished 72 out of 1050 which paid $3,750 gross ($1,250 net). Unfortunately in my second event ($2,500 Pot Limit Hold 'em) I finished about 100 out of 450 and in my third event ($2,000 No Limit Hold 'em) I finished about 250 out of 1100. So even though I was better than the 25 percentile in all three tournaments I lost $3,750 (actually I personally only lost about half that since I had investors who had put up half the money). Maybe the best thing about that trip is I've already done it once so now I'm not going to be nearly as nervous as I was last year.

What are my goals

I'm bringing $30,000 to Vegas for the WSOP events (as well as some side action or smaller "second chance" tournaments and satellites) and I've given a lot of thought to what my goals are. I've got plenty of them, but rather than make it a simple success or failure I've come up with a letter grade system much like you'd have on a test. This is how I'd rate my level of success.

A+ Making any final table or winning more than $50,000
A Making the Money in 50% of the events I enter or winning more than $25,000
A- Making the money in 40% of events I enter or winning more than $10,000
B+ Winning at least $1 or making the money in the main event
B 3 strong money finishes or Coming home with more than $25,000
B- 3 weak money finishes or coming home with more than $20,000
C+ Coming home with more than $15,000 and two money finishes
C two weak money finishes
C- Coming home with more than $10,000
D+ Coming home with more than $5,000 and 1 money finish
D Coming home with less than $5,000 and 1 money finish
D- Coming home broke with 1 money finish
F Coming home completely broke with no money finishes

A money finish is exacly what it sounds like. The top 10% of finishers in every event win money and everyone else loses. A weak money finish would be just sneaking into the top 10%. For this kind of finish you get your buy-in back plus a little extra. A strong money finish might be one where you win several times the initial buy-in (ie winning $8,000 in a $2,000 buy-in event).

Of course my letter grades aren't a perfect system, but it will give me a record of pre WSOP ideas about success that I can look back at when I'm done. Not included on the list are a few off the chart results such as winning a bracelet (the winner of each event gets an engraved gold bracelet as a sort of trophy), multiple final table appearances, winning over a million dollars etc. I figure I have about 1 in 150 chance of winning an event, about a 1 in 600 chance of winning $1,000,000 or more and a 1 in 6,000 chance of winning the main event and $10,000,000. Not great odds but light years better than the lottery.

My Schedule

All of this poker and WSOP stuff is great, but what the hell will you actually be doing!? I'll be staying at the Rio (where all of the events are taking place) from June 26th until July 9th for the preliminary events. I'll be heading back to Vegas again on July 27th for the main event, which could last 5 minutes or 12 days depending on how I do. Here is my exact itinerary with the dates, the variety of poker and the buy-in for each tournament.

Tue June 27 No-Limit Hold'em $1.5k
Wed June 28 Pot-Limit Hold'em $1.5k
Thu June 29 Limit Hold'em $1.5k
Fri June 30 No-limit Hold'em Short Handed, 6/table $2.5k
Sat Jul 1 No-Limit Hold'em $2k
Sun Jul 2 Limit Hold'em $3k
Tue Jul 4 No-Limit Hold'em $5k
Wed Jul 5 Seven Card Stud $1.5k
Thu Jul 6 Limit Hold'em $1.5k
Fri Jul 7 No-Limit Hold'em $2.5k
Sat Jul 8 No-Limit Hold'em w/re-buys $1k (3K-5K total commitment)

Fri Jul 28 No-Limit Texas Hold'em World Championship Event $10k

Sure looks like a lot of poker when I look at it this way. But the chances of me playing all of these events is remote. The first 11 events are theoretically 3 day events. The first day consists of about 15 hours of play (there's a 15 minute break every 2 hours and a 1 hour dinner break about 6 hours into each event). The next day whoever is left (about 5%-10% of the starting field) comes back and they play down to the top 9 players who come back the next day for the televised final table. So if I make it to day 2 of an event I won't be playing day one of the next event. I expect the first event to have over 2000 entrants (like it did last year) and even the smallest events (some of the limit hold 'em events or the stud event) will still have at least 300 or 400 so making day 3 is going to be extremely difficult. If I make it that far in ANY event the trip will be a huge success monetarily and otherwise. Conversely if I don't see day 2 of any event the trip will be a spectacular failure. Keep in mind, however, that these are not chess tournaments or golf tournaments where the best players always tend to do better than the worst. The short term luck factor (notice I said short term, because in the long run everyone gets the same distribution of cards and skill alone separates the winning players from the losing ones) in poker can destroy the best laid plans. In poker the best player in a tournament can be the first one out and the worst player could win outright. Of course it's much more likely to be the other way around. One of the great things about the WSOP is they give you time. The longer the tournament lasts the more skill comes into play. Hopefully I'll be able to avoid the rough spots early and give my skill a chance to come into play.