Wednesday, January 20, 2010

UBOC Events #1 and #2 Underway!

Event #1 of the Ultimate Bet Online Championship is $320 "sniper" no limit hold'em. In this variant for every player that you bust you get $30 ($20 from each player goes to the house and $270 goes to the prize pool). We started with 1,103 players, the tournament pays 108 spots and first place is $65,488.

Event #2 is $162 8-game mixed. On pokerstars 8-game is a mix of the five HORSE games, plus triple draw, no limit hold'em and pot limit Omaha, but in this tournament there is no triple draw and instead there is pot limit Omaha hi lo. Also they've switched the no limit hold'em to pot limit hold'em.

I haven't played a ton of pot limit hold'em, but I have two WSOP cashes in that style so I'm not super pissed about the switch. On the other hand I'd much rather play triple draw than PLO8 even though I've made the money in 100% of the PLO8 tournaments I've played (I'm 1 for 1).

We started event #2 with 386 players and first place is $15,633.

An hour and a half into both, not much has happened. I'll try to put up a recap later, but might not get to it for a while since I'm off to wine country tomorrow and need to do some planning.

Friday, January 15, 2010

UBOC Starts January 20th!

Ahhh another acronym for a poker tournament series! It's not exactly the WSOP. It's not the WCOOP or the SCOOP. It's not even the FTOPS. I don't know if there is any prestige at all involved in winning a UBOC event, but like the above sets of tournaments the Ultimate Bet Online Championship will be loaded with under qualified players taking their shot at six figure pay days. The action starts January 20th and goes until the 31st.

There are 18 events with buy ins ranging from $109 to $2,600. Here is the full schedule if you're interested.

There are 9 events with buy ins totalling about $2,500 that I'm 95% sure I'll play. Towards the end of the series there are two $1,000 buy in events and one $500 event that I'll probably skip if I get stomped in the first 9. But I'll give them a go if I've been doing well. One major downside of this series is that most of the tournaments go off at 5:00 pacific so I'm going to have some late nights if I do well.

They are running an interesting promotion where you win prizes based on how many cashes you have in the series. Here are the prizes:

11 cashes $1,000,000
10 cashes $100,000
9 cashes $10,000 WSOP main event entry and $10,000 UB Aruba buy in
8 cashes $10,000 UB Aruba buy in
7 cashes $1,000 online tournament entry
6 cashes $500 online tournament entry
5 cashes $500 online tournament entry
4 cashes $300 online tournament entry
3 cashes $200 online tournament entry
2 cashes entry into a $10K prize pool freeroll

I have plans to play 5 of the first 7 events and you can bet that if I cash in 3 or 4 of them I'll expand my schedule and make a go at 8 or 9 cashes. I'll do my best to post about my results, but as my loyal readers know I tend to start strong with the recaps and then fade after a few days of blogging every day.

Even though this is the "Ultimate Bet" online championship, I'll be playing it on Absolute Poker. A year or two ago these two websites joined to increase their traffic, but they're still independent in some ways. The point is if you want to watch the action live you can go to www.absolutepoker.com, download the software and do a search for acessedai (that's not a typo I have an extra "s" in my AP username compared to my pokerstars name). I'll also try to post some on twitter as I go (as you can probably see my tweets will show up on the right side of the blog).

Wish me luck!

Friday, January 01, 2010

New Year's Poker Resolutions

I'm not much for new year's resolutions. Apparently the top ten are:

1. Spend more time with family and friends
2. Get fit
3. Lose weight
4. Quit smoking
5. Enjoy life more
6. Quit drinking
7. Get out of debt
8. Learn something new
9. Help others
10. Get organized

How the hell are you going to enjoy life more if you quit drinking and smoking and spend time helping others? Let's go get drunk and pick on some short people! In all seriousness those things all seem important, but I feel like I have at least a good handle on most of them.

On the other hand I'm always looking to improve my profession. This year my resolution is to be more businesslike and professional about my poker playing.

I've gotten out of the habit of keeping tight records. I know how much I've won and lost, but I can only guess about what is the most profitable use of my time. This year I'm going to get back to tracking exactly how many hands I played, in what games, on what sites, and exactly how many dollars I've won and lost in every session.

The second part of my plan is to play more and keep a more consistent schedule. I don't have any trouble getting motivated when I feel like I really need the money. But when all I've been doing is slaughtering it's hard to get up that hour or two earlier, or take a 30 minute lunch instead of a 2 hour one, or play until 7 instead of bailing out at 5. Can you blame me? It feels all but impossible to push through another 500 hands when I'm ahead $1,000 for the day, $5,000 for the week and my two year old son is saying "Daddy, come play with me!"

One of the ways I cope with devastating losses is by coming up with a plan. Once I have a plan I always feel better. But I don't need a huge loss to come up with a plan! I have one right now! A plan that I'm sure I will stick to for at least a full 2% of 2010! My plan is to use 75% more exclamation marks!

Actually my plan is to play 50,000 hands a month. That's significantly less than I did in 2008, and while that's about what I did in 2009 I'm going to do it playing 4 games at a time instead of going to 6 or 7 when I feel like I need to bang out a ton of hands.

If I can make 25 cents a hand that would be $150,000 for the year. I don't think that's unreasonable since I've been making more than that since switching to AP and cake poker.

In the longer term I always thought to my self that it would be great to have career winnings of $1,000,000 before I turned 30. I'll be 30 on February 16th so barring an absurd tournament win, I'm going to come up short. But my new goal is to make $2,000,000 between 30 and 40. As long as we're talking 10 year plans, I'm also going to make a WSOP final table during that time.

Happy New Year!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!(I told you about the exclamation point plan right!?!)

Thursday, December 24, 2009

A Lucky Misclick

My Streak of $1,000+ wins came to an end at 6. But I did win two more days before I took a moderate loss. In the days following that, I booked three wins and only one loss, with one $1,000+ win. In short I've still been doing really well, but haven't been unilaterally slaughtering everyone who gets dealt in against me.

Here is hand in which I got really lucky in an unconventional way.

Stage #1810643687: Holdem Normal $10/$20 - 2009-12-21 16:11:39.000 (ET) [ 2009-12-21 16:11:39 ]
Table: Lodi.16 (Real Money) Seat #3 is the dealer
Seat 3 - PADDY516 ($2,548.50 in chips)
Seat 4 - ACESSEDAI ($787 in chips)
Seat 5 - MRFUSSY ($1,204 in chips)
Seat 1 - SCOTT86 ($169 in chips)
Seat 2 - BILLYBEANE ($726 in chips)
ACESSEDAI - Posts small blind $5
MRFUSSY - Posts big blind $10
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to ACESSEDAI [Ah Ac]
SCOTT86 - Raises $20 to $20
BILLYBEANE - Folds
PADDY516 - Calls $20
ACESSEDAI - Folds
MRFUSSY - Folds
*** FLOP *** [6s 4s Jh]
SCOTT86 - Bets $10
PADDY516 - Calls $10
*** TURN *** [6s 4s Jh] [5c]
SCOTT86 - Bets $20
PADDY516 - Raises $40 to $40
SCOTT86 - Calls $20
*** RIVER *** [6s 4s Jh 5c] [7s]
SCOTT86 - Checks
PADDY516 - Bets $20
SCOTT86 - Calls $20
*** SHOW DOWN ***
PADDY516 - Shows [8s 10s] (Flush, ten high)
SCOTT86 - Mucks
PADDY516 Collects $192 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total Pot($195) | Rake ($3)
Board [6s 4s Jh 5c 7s]
Seat 1: SCOTT86 HI: [Mucked] [Qh Js]
Seat 2: BILLYBEANE Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 3: PADDY516 (dealer) won Total ($192) HI:($192) with Flush, ten high [8s 10s - P:10s,P:8s,B:7s,B:6s,B:4s]
Seat 4: ACESSEDAI (small blind) Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 5: MRFUSSY (big blind) Folded on the POCKET CARDS

Every now and then when you're playing online you click a button that you don't mean to. On this hand I had AA and I accidentally clicked fold before the flop! AHHHHHHHH! If I haven't been doing well this type of thing will make me totally bananas.

Imagine what it feels like as you watch the pot build and someone else take it down profiting hundreds of dollars that should have been yours. It's one thing to make an error of judgement that costs you or bad break fueled by the deck, but having a flinch of your finger cost you can be too much to handle. It's like realizing that you gave a toll collector two c-notes instead of two singles or having ten $20 bills blow out of your hand in a strong wind and go rocketing across a busy street never to be seen again.

Happily this hand was the exact opposite. It turns out I would have been against one player with top pair and another who flopped a flush draw. No doubt we would have had heavy action on the flop. On the turn the player with the flush draw picked up a straight draw too and raised with it. On the river he made the flush which would have squashed my AA. I'm guessing I saved $110-$150 by accidentally folding and perhaps equally importantly my state of mind was effected positively which allowed me to keep playing my A game.

Right now I'm on vacation, but expect to put in 500-1,000 hands a day at my in laws house. Holiday weekends are almost always the best times to play so for those of you who play, you might want to put in a few more hours this Saturday and Sunday. It should be worth it.

Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah!

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

The First Time I Ever Won $1,000

The first time I ever played a poker tournament I was the first one out. But the second time I had much more success.

Back in 2001 the Oaks Club ran a limit tournament with a $60 buy-in and a $50 rebuy. It ran every Wednesday night at 6:30 and usually drew about 50 players which is a microscopic field by today's standards. I strolled into the Oaks around 3 p.m. ignoring the fact that I had a 4 o’clock class and saw that the tournament would be running later that night. I decided to play $6-$12 and if I could win more than $110 I would use it to get into the tournament.

After a nice, straight forward 3 hour session picked up almost two racks of grey $2 chips and headed to the cage. I’d won about $180 and even though my plan was play the tournament with my winnings I started to have second thoughts. $180 was a solid win for me and I knew it would sour the day for me if I blew back almost half my profits in the tournament. I headed to the Oaks restaurant to have a burger and think things through. In the end I decided I probably wouldn’t have too many chances to play the tournament and still leave a solid winner for the day even if I didn’t cash. I paid my entry fee and hesitantly awaited the start of the tournament.

I ran good the entire way through and even though I had plenty of chips and we were playing limit, I was terrified as we approached the money bubble. To say I was nervous at the final table would be an insane understatement. First place was a little over $2,000 and my biggest win to date was $350. I was still at the stage where winning a hundred bucks felt like a strong win and even hitting $500 seemed like so much money that I wouldn't know what to do with myself.

I ended up playing 3 handed with a guy named Simon who was a regular and a young Filipino guy I knew from the $3/$6 game. Even though I’d decided Simon sucked based on how he'd been playing and didn’t think much of my other opponent, I was instantly smitten with the idea of a deal when Simon mentioned it. I was terrified of making a mistake that would cost me many hundreds of dollars and this gave me a chance to lock up my profits.

I had about a quarter of the chips, the other player had slightly less than I did and Simon had a little more than half of the chips in play. His opening proposal was to take $100 off of the $2,100 first place and give it to us which we would then split along with the rest of the prize money.

Although this was only my second tournament and my first deal negotiation I was not born yesterday. I knew this was a shitty deal and when I told him that in so many words he said “but I have twice as many chips as you.” To which I immediately replied “yeah, but I’m twice as good as you.” It’s not like me to razz anyone like that and to me it looked like his head was going to explode.

We played a few more hands and found ourselves in the same chips positions when I proposed that I take second place money [$1,060] (If I had exactly 25% of the chips and we did a deal based on chip count I should have gotten $1,127 so I screwed myself a little if I remember the prizes correctly), Simon take 1st place money less $300 [$1,800] and the other fellow take third place money plus $300 [$975]. After a bunch of hemming and hawing where everyone says “I’ll play if you want, but I guess the deal is ok, what do you guys want to do?” several times, we finally all agreed.

After Simon agreed and our other opponent said “ok let’s do it,” I pounded my fist against the table and said “Yes, Alright!” It wasn’t as thrilling as wining the last hand to claim outright victory, but god damn it I was fired up. I instantly felt bad that I’d told Simon I was twice as good as him, apologized and shook his hand.

I drove home on cloud nine. When I saw my friends I said "guess how much I won today?" Someone said "Five hundred!" and then they all laughed at the absurdity of the suggestion. "More!" I said. "Seven?!?!?" They said. "NO!, $1,130!!!" "Holy shit!"

That was really an amazing day. I'm not sure how much money I'd have to win to be that excited today, but it's a lot. It's very nice new car kind of money.

I was thinking of that day because today was the 6th straight day that I've won over $1,000. I'm sure I've never done that before, and while it doesn't feel mind blowing it still feels pretty good. I hope I can keep the streak alive tomorrow.

Monday, December 14, 2009

A NL Hand, a Comment Respose and a New Streak

While I'm mostly abandoned pokerstars I did jump into a $10/$20 8-game mixed games cash game a few days ago. I bought in for $300 and cashed out with over $1,000 15 minutes later.

Here is one of the key hands I played which I thought was interesting (I'll recap the action after the hand history for those of you who aren't used to reading them).

*********** # 1 **************
PokerStars Game #36600747096: 8-Game (Hold'em No Limit, $2.50/$5.00 USD) - 2009/12/12 15:46:14 ET
Table 'Glaukos IX' 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: ACESEDAI ($332 in chips)
Seat 2: bd3109 ($545 in chips)
Seat 3: aikiman ($585.10 in chips)
Seat 5: FisherProker ($421.90 in chips)
Seat 6: -Bay777- ($883.05 in chips)
-Bay777-: posts small blind $2.50
ACESEDAI: posts big blind $5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ACESEDAI [Kh Jc]
bd3109: raises $10 to $15
aikiman: folds
FisherProker: folds
-Bay777-: folds
ACESEDAI: calls $10
*** FLOP *** [Js Jd Jh]
ACESEDAI: checks
badabang has returned
bd3109: bets $20
ACESEDAI: raises $35 to $55
bd3109: calls $35
*** TURN *** [Js Jd Jh] [Qs]
ACESEDAI: checks
bd3109: bets $75
ACESEDAI: calls $75
*** RIVER *** [Js Jd Jh Qs] [8d]
ACESEDAI: bets $187 and is all-in
bd3109: calls $187
*** SHOW DOWN ***
ACESEDAI: shows [Kh Jc] (four of a kind, Jacks)
bd3109: shows [8c 8s] (a full house, Jacks full of Eights)
ACESEDAI collected $664.50 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $666.50 | Rake $2
Board [Js Jd Jh Qs 8d]
Seat 1: ACESEDAI (big blind) showed [Kh Jc] and won ($664.50) with four of a kind, Jacks
Seat 2: bd3109 showed [8c 8s] and lost with a full house, Jacks full of Eights
Seat 3: aikiman folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: FisherProker (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: -Bay777- (small blind) folded before Flop


Playing NL hold'em with blinds of $2.50/$5 I called a raise to $15 in the big blind with KJ. This hand can be trouble in no limit since it tends to make second best hands, but since we were playing 5 handed I thought it was too tight to let it go.

The flop came down J J J! Talk about monster flops! I had a little over $300 in front of me and my goal was to get as much of it in the pot as possible without losing my opponent.

Step 1 was check raising the flop which was a no brainer. I figured my opponent would bet no matter what he had and sure enough he fired out $20 into the $30 pot. My options were to raise now, call with the plan of betting out on the turn, or call with the plan of check raising the turn. I almost never call and then bet out on the turn so I threw that option out of the window.

In the end I decided that check raising the flop would look a little weaker than calling the flop and check raising the turn. I was also worried that if I waited for the turn to try and check raise again my opponent would check behind me which would be a minor disaster. When you have a huge hand like this it's important to build to pot early so your opponents get tied to it and you can make bigger bets on later betting rounds.

I made it $55 to go. I picked this amount because it was enough that my opponent could put me on a bluff (if I made it $40 it would surely look like I had a big hand), but it wasn't so much that he would be forced to fold a hand like KQ or AT. I wanted those hands calling because if they hit I'd be sure to get paid off.

My opponent called and the turn was a Q. This was a great card for me. If my opponent had a Q I would probably double up on the hand no matter what I did on the turn. But I didn't want to scare away a small pair or two big cards that might get there on the river. So I decided to check and make it look like I was scared of the queen or just bailing out on a bluff.

My opponent bet $75 much to my delight. If I moved all in here I would be raising him $187 above and beyond the $75 he'd put in the pot. At this point I felt like he had something, but I wasn't sure it was enough to call that big of a check raise. Instead I opted to just call the turn and bet out all in on the river.

An all in bet out of position after just calling the turn tends to look like a desperation bluff. The river was an 8 which didn't improve my opponent's hand since he had 88, but happily he called me anyway probably hoping I had a pair below 8.

There were a lot of ways to go with this hand, but it is a great example of planning your hand and setting up moves you're going to make on later betting rounds. I'm not sure I would have made the maximum had I played it more straight forwardly.

Shifting gears, Adam from Vegas recently posted a comment saying: "I really feel that online poker has went downhill so much in the last 2 years that its tough for it to be profitable anymore."

I agree. It's much, much tougher than it used to be. A big part of it is it's so much harder to get money into the websites these days and casual players aren't willing to jump through all the hoops or pay the fees that it takes to get money in.

Another part is the access to strategic information. When I first started playing poker in 9 years ago if you went to the book store there would be about 10 books on poker and half of them were total garbage. Now there are hundreds. On top of that there are better articles, online forums and software to help you with your game.

When I first started playing online anyone could be a winner if they read a book or two. Now it takes a ton of experience and a ton of study to win even at the lower stakes.

It's not impossible though. I've only had one losing month this year. I read in carplayer this week that congress did a study that full legalization and regulation of online poker would result in 41.8 BILLION dollars in tax revenue over the next ten years. That's the kind of money that's hard to ignore. Hopefully those ass holes will finally do something and we'll have a huge influx of new players. I'd guess that the first year that any American can deposit with a credit card I'll make half a million dollars.

For now I'm on a good run. I've won the last 4 days that I've played and the worst of those wins was over $1,000. Hopefully I can keep up this good run into the holidays.

Friday, December 11, 2009

More Good News from the Smaller Websites

AP has started running a promotion where they offer double absolute points between the hours of 10 and 1 (pacific), during both the morning and night hours. As I looked at the points I was racking up I started to think about the percentage of rakeback I was getting during those hours. Playing 10/20 on average I'm paying about 25 cents per hand in rake. If I play 1,000 hands the website gets $250 from me personally.

But I get 30% of that money back in straight rakeback which is $75 for those same 1,000 hands. Also I'm constantly clearing reload bonuses at the rate of about 5 cents a hand so that's another $50. I've estimated that I'm making about 2.5 cents per hand in value as far as the monthly rake race goes so that's another $25. Lastly during double AP points hours I'm making about 9 AP points per hand which is worth about 6.5 cents or another $65 for 1,000 hands. Put all together and I'm actually getting 86% of my rake back! This is totally absurd! It's $100 an hour for breaking even in the games! I have to start working harder.

In other good news I've been playing $20/$40 on cake poker the past two days. In the past $10/$20 was the highest stakes games that went, but there have been two $20/$40's today and yesterday. What's exciting is not the stakes, but the quality of the play. If you went to the lowliest casino in Reno with a poker room, went to the lowest stakes game and hucked a chip at everyone's head, the last guy to notice that he'd been popped in the noggin would be of the quality of some of the players I've been facing. It's truly astounding.

The only thing working against me is I get too excited. Holy shit! Look at the things these guys are doing! I need to get their money now before it goes to my other opponents who barely have a clue, but who look like Doyle Brunson compared to these other guys!

We've been spending money like it's going out of style lately and I've been taking too much time off so I'm my bankroll isn't exactly where I want it to be, but the future is looking bright.

Thursday, December 10, 2009

Testimonials

As some of you may have noticed I've been getting a little bit of spam in the comments section of my blog. Mostly it's been one post telling you how you can get rich quick. I am shocked at how many adds I see on late night TV, in print and on the Internet that use testimonials from "real people" who have made "up to" many thousands of dollars a week or a month "from home!"

If all you have to sell your product is testimonials you're "system" is a "big steaming pile of shit" in my humble opinion.

Let me tell you about a system that blows all of these others out of the water. You have a system where I can make $10,000 a month? That's a pittance! In this system that I know about literally thousands of people from all walks of life, with all educational backgrounds have made millions of dollars. In fact on average these people are not that smart! These people come from all over the country and some of them have made tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars with no effort and only a $1 investment!

A $1 investment?!?!? YES! Invest a buck and make millions! Thousands have already done it! It takes no time at all and you can do it from almost anywhere!

GO BY A LOTTO TICKET YOU SUCKERS!

F-ing testimonials.

Thursday, December 03, 2009

Cake in Your Face!

I hope everyone out there had a great Thanksgiving. I spent the week at my in-laws house in Orange County. I ate more than my share of turkey, watched plenty of football, saw a few movies and even took my two year old son to the beach.

But I also spent a fair amount of time working. In fact I did enough that I ended up finishing 2nd in the monthly rake race at rackbacknation.com which was worth $775. I think to some extent everyone else got derailed by the holidays so even thought I didn't put in a first class effort I did enough for a strong result.

I also picked up a few more bucks in the AP daily points races. In total I made $1,050 from that promotion. I did get totally hosed on one occasion though. On that day I started playing relatively late not logging on until 12:30. But my father in law Gerry who has been getting his feet wet in some low stakes limit hold'em games was watching over my shoulder, I was playing well and enjoying myself, and before I knew it I'd played for 6 hours with only one 20 minute break. When I checked the daily points standings I saw that I had a chance to win the race for that day.

After a short break for dinner I logged back on at 7 pacific time which meant there were only two hours left in the race (it ended at midnight eastern). After 45 minutes I had what I would describe as perhaps the most frustrating internet experience of my life.

Problems with my technology not working MAKES ME ABSOLUTELY CRAZY! AHHHHHHHH!!!!

In this instance I was able to connect to the internet, log on to AP, get into games and then it would just lock up. Over the span of an hour or so I tried 4 different computers (two of which required installing the AP software) and multiple reboots of the router and cable modem. A dozen times I logged on got dealts a few hands and then FREEZE! Everything would stop.

If I'd been able to play that last hour I'm not positive I would have won the race and picked up $500, but I would have at least been able to finish 2nd which paid $400. Instead I got $150 for finishing 5th.

I ended up winning over $1,300 that day and I earned a ton of rakeback and points so I should have felt great and I did feel pretty good. But the next day I got stung for $1,800. Right out of the gate I felt tense and I can't help but wonder if the stress from the previous day played a part.

The day after I tried playing in a coffee shop for a little while, but again I didn't have a good mindset. My laptop is 5 years old and is as slow as a dead snail. I had problems with booting and crashing and logging on to the wireless network and it took me 30 minutes from the time I sat down to the time I got my first hand. From hand 1 I was feeling negative and after an hour or so and a small loss I packed it in.

But now I'm back home. Ah home sweet home. I always feel at peace when I sit down in the morning in my usual chair with my lightning quick desktop with my hot cup of coffee. Yesterday I got off to a terrible start and found myself stuck $2,000. But I didn't let it get to me and I came all the way back to have a small win.

Today I smashed a few people right in the face on cake poker picking up $1,800 in only 750 hands of $8/$16. About half of those hands were heads up and I took the entire starting stack of 3 different players who took me on one on one. To make it all the sweeter I picked up another $700 in 1,000 hands on AP.

This is going to be my first full month of non pokerstars play. I have high hopes and lofty goals. Since I have two more weeks of vacation coming in the next 6 weeks I'm going to really need to bust my ass so I can afford to take all that time off!

Thursday, November 19, 2009

The AP Points Race

It's been two weeks since my last post and not much of significance has happened since then. I played a total of 5 FTOPS tournaments: $216 6-max NLH, $216 7-game mixed games, $109 NLH with rebuys, $535 HORSE, and $216 6 max limit hold'em. It was brick city in all of them (I came closest to the money in the HORSE).

I spent a fair amount of time playing on Absolute Poker (AP). Each month the website through which I get rakeback runs a promotion called a "rake race" where they give prizes to the customers who earn the most rake on various poker sites. Last month with a part time effort I finished 2nd which was worth $775.

After my streak of 11 straight winning days I had a significant run of losing days. I've been really conflicted lately because if I make it to 600,000 base FPPs on pokerstars by the end of they year I earn a $6,000 bonus. Right now I'm 67,000 points away which is not a ton (I averaged 83,000 points a month last year), but I have been getting killed on pokerstars! On the other hand I have been killing on absolute poker doing fine in limited action on cake poker.

I haven't really run the numbers to see what I should do, but I'm going to do it right now!

$6,000 is a lot of money to leave hanging out there and in making it to that point I'd pick up about $3,000 in FPPs so really I'm looking at $9,000 for breaking even over about 50,000 hands on 10/20. That's 18 cents an hand which amounts to about 65% rakeback!

Now I'm going to look at what those 50,000 hands will make me on AP. I think I get about 9 cents a hand in rake back so that's $4,500. I'd earn 187,500 absolute points (the AP version of FPPs) which are worth about $1,300. I'd get two prizes in the rakeback nation monthly rake race (One for November and one for December). Conservatively I could get 3rd place this month and 2nd next month which would be $1,400. So really I'm looking at $7,200 in bonus money on AP and $9,000 on pokerstars. That's closer than I thought. When I factor in that I'm going to be playing in cupcake games instead of ball busting ones, it seems like a clear decision.

But there's more! For the rest of this month AP is offering a daily points race. The top 10 players who earn the most points each day get a cash prize. Here is the list of prizes:

1st $500
2nd $400
3rd $300
4th-6th $150
7th-8th $100
9th-10th $75

I found out half way through the first day which was the 17th so I didn't make the top 10. But I put in a major effort yesterday and came in third. I took today off, but my effort from yesterday would have put me in a solid second.

The points they use to determine the race are "status points." I'm not sure what the rules are for other stakes, but at the levels I play I get two points every time I play hand that A) I put money into the pot by, raising, calling or posting a blind and B) they rake the pot. It turns out I make about .75 status points per had on average.

Yesterday I played about 3,300 hands and made 2,500 or so points. The second place finisher had around 3,000, 1st had 4,500 or so and the fellow in 4th had about 50 less than I did. In fact I played some at the 11th hour to move past him and since it was much later in other parts of the world I'm sure he was long done with his day.

Today 1st place was won by the same guy (who also plays 6 max limit hold 'em, but plays more games at a time and longer hours than I do) who again was over 4,000 points. But 2nd was 2,100 and 3rd was only 1,900.

I'm not sure what's going to happen to the numbers over the weekend and if they guy who has been winning keeps it up I'm not going to get 1st. But I should be able to pile up a few seconds and thirds and should have a fairly easy time getting into the top 6 without really busting my ass. I'm going to give it my best over these next three days and hopefulle pick up and extra grand.

So with that in mind I'm going to be totally AP focused for the rest of the month. And given that, I'm probably going to bail on pokerstars altogether. I'm not 100% on that, but it seems like it's headed that way. It makes me a little sad. :(

My WSOP 2023 Plans and Missions

After four and a half years working for StubHub I wrapped up my time there in March. I've been at the poker tables 3-4 days a week since...