A little math

Clearly I'm a little disapointed with my performance so far at the WSOP, but how bad was it? Let's look a few exmaples to put it into perspective. Imagine the player who is in the exact middle of the field, let's call him Middleton. Half the players are better than him and half the players are worse in every event he plays. Middleton shoud have exactly a 10% chance of making the money whenever he enters. So if Middleton played 9 events (just like certain other players we know and love) what are the chances of him finishing in the money in ZERO events (the math for 1 money finish is a little more complicated so we'll stick with this). Who said 10%? Nope. 26.57%? Now you're just guessing. The real answer is actually 38%. 38% of the time Middleton would have no money finishes after playing 9 events even though he's better than half of the other players.

Now lets look at a great player. We'll call him captain 20! Captain 20 is better than almost all of the players he plays against and makes the money 20% of the time he enters an event. What are the chances of him going o for 9? Who said 19%? Nope. It's actually 13.5%. Even a great player can still expect to get totally blanked almost 14% of the time he enters 9 events.

Now let's look at a player that makes the money 30% of the time. We'll call him the figment, because guess what he doesn't exsist. There's just too much short term luck and too many other good players for anyone to make the money this frequently. Even if you put Phil Ivey (who many think is the best player in the world) into a mythical $50 tournament (let's assume you agree to give him 100 times what he actually wins so he's interested) where they gave you plenty of time to play (a normal $50 tournamnet would have about 100 players and will usually be over in 4 hours or less) with a bunch of total amatures he still wouldn't make the money more than about a third of the time.

So where do I fit in. When I play tournaments on the internet that pay 10% of the field with buy-ins ranging from $50-$300 (which other than special events is as big as they get online) I've finished in the money about 22% of the time (in 2005 I played 606 tournamnets of this type). At the WSOP I'd put myself some where in betten Middleton and Captain 20, but it's hard to say and I may never really know where I fit in. In order to get any kind of idea statistically I'd have to play AT LEAST 100 events (and probably more like 500 or 1000). The problem with that (along with the insane cost) is after playing 50 events I'll be much better than I was when I started and after another 50 I'd be much better than I was after the first 50. So I really just have to guess where I stand. The real question is "If I played this tournament 10,000 would I have more money than I started with." At the WSOP if the answer is yes then I should play. In smaller tournaments the answer has to be yes and then we have to look at how much. I could go beat the shit out of some $20 players all day every day, but it wouldn't get me much.

Event 12 recap

It's a little late but here it is! Event #12, $2,500 no limit hold 'em, started with 1290 players and I had great feeling about it going in. On the very first hand of the tournament I easily could have gone broke. I was two off the button with J 9 and I considered raising because the players in the blinds had not yet arrived at the table, but their chips were still in the pot (you don't get a free trip through the blinds if you're not there yet). Despite what looked like easy money out there, I decided to fold and the player to my left, a 50ish Englishman, made it 125 to go (the blinds were 25/25). The player to his left made it 300, he called, and the flop came J J 4. I was kicking myself for folding what would have been trip jacks until the Englishman checked and called a bet of 800. It looked like one of these fellows probably had a J. The turn was another 4 and the Englishman instantly put the rest of his 1400 chips into the pot. After about a good 3 or 4 minutes the other player folded QQ face up and the Englishman showed a 4 to the table. He threw in both of his cards face down and someone asked "what did he show?" Everyone said "a four," but the Englishman reached out a flipped up one of the cards he'd just folded anyway. It was a four, BUT the card he flipped up wasn't the same 4 he'd already shown - he'd made four of a kind. I don't think anyone noticed that he'd grabbed a different card but I was sitting right next to him so I caught it. If I had seen the flop I would have been out on the first hand.

A few hands later I dodged another bullet. One player raised to 100, another made it 300 to go and I looked down at JJ - the 4th or 5th best starting hand in hold 'em. Raising, calling and folding were all options here. If I raised and got reraised I could be sure I was against a bigger pair, but I'd be risking about a third of my chips to find out. If I called and the board was all small cards I'd probably go broke if someone had me beat. I decided it was still too early and folded. The player who'd had QQ in the first hand moved all in with 99 and was called by one of the other players who showed KK and won the pot with a full house.

Despite my Matrix style bullet dodging I was still getting hit with some shrapnel and found myself down to 1100 chips after the first hour. I had yet to win a pot even though I'd been getting some pretty good cards. I caught my first break in round 2 with the blinds a 25/50 when the button open raised to 150. After finding 22 in my hand, I got aggressive and moved all in. I'd be about a 53% favorite against any non pair and I was planning on winning the pot before the flop. My opponent called in about 1/10 of a second and I said "show me ace king!" AK and pairs much bigger than 22 were the only hands that would require no thought before a call. Happily he showed me AK, the cards that came out in the middle of the table were all garbage and I doubled up to about where I started.

Perhaps the easiest chips I picked up in the entire WSOP came to me a few hands later. The Englishman (who was super aggressive) open raised to 150 (this was a little out of character because he was normally raising to 5 to 10 times the big blind - too much in my opinion) and the button called. I was in the big blind and picked up two red 10's. I thought about just calling, but I figured the Englishman could have a wide range of hands and if the other player had anything great he would have rerasied so it was likely I had the best hand. I made it 650 to go and after about 30 seconds the Englishman called and the button quickly folded. The flop came down 10 6 5. DING DING DING! I had the best possible hand and I tried to figure out how to get the most money into the pot. Hoping to get called or raised, I bet 500 into a 1475 pot. The Englishman thought and asked how many chips I had left (a sign that he was considering moving all in). After some more thought, he just called. At this point I was checking no matter what came on the turn. If he was thinking about moving all in I wanted to give him every indication that I had a weak hand. The turn was a small club (which put two on the board), I checked, the Englishman immediately moved all in and I almost beat him into the pot. He turned up KJ of clubs and after no club materialized on the river I took down the pot.

Up to 5000 in chips I was feeling great as I moved to a new table and we went on break. My new table was tougher than my first and I found myself sitting across from Clonie Gowen, one of the best (and best looking) female players in the world. I bled off about 1000 chips in unspectacular fashion and found myself moving yet again to another table. At this new table I found Mike "The Mouth" Matasow. Mike has the most fitting nickname in all of poker - he never shuts up. I'd seen him on TV plenty (he finished 9th out of 5600 in last years main event and has two WSOP bracelets) and he's always seemed like a prick, but he was really nice to me and was actually pretty well behaved. Of course he was still talking constantly.

Shortly after arriving at my new table I got involved in the hand that was the turning point of the event. At the start of round 4 with the blinds at 100/200 I was in the big blind with 77. The player on the button raised to 525 and I had a decision to make. I could just call the 325 more and see a flop or I could reraise and try to win the pot right there. I looked at my opponents stack and he only had about 2000 more while I had about 4000 chips so even if he called me AND I lost I'd still have 1500 left (not a ton of chips but enough to work with a little). After about 10 seconds I moved all in and he instantly called. Uh oh. I was hoping to see AK again, but instead he showed me 99 and took most of my chips. I know this was the right play and my opponent easily could have had plenty of hands that he would have folded or plenty of hands that I would be a favorite against (in fact if he had anything but a pair bigger than 77 I was ahead). I spent the next 30 hands or so looking for ANYTHING to move all in with and managed to steal the blinds a few times, but of course I had to go right back through them again. Finally with about 1200 chips left I picked up A8 of spades in late position. One player just called the big blind and I moved all in. After asking for a count of my chips he called with A 10. The flop was 9 10 J giving me a straight draw and some hope, but no help arrived and I was out.

Event #12 recap preview

Get ready for a preview of the recap! I had another mid stream exit today (it seems like everyday I went broke in round 4, damit!). I'm going to go have dinner and a few drinks now, but I'll write a recap either later tonight or tomorrow along with a few thoughts about how things have gone so far, what I need to work on and just what the hell happened. Remember there's still hope -the $10,000 main event starts July 28th. Hopefully I've been saving up all my good luck for "the big one."

Today 3 years ago

On July 7th 2003 I had my first day as a professional poker player. I won he first hand I played that day with four aces. I won $98 and left the casino feeling like a million bucks. In the three years since I've had plenty of good days and bad, but I've had 34 winning months and only 2 losing months (September of 05 and March of 06). I tell everyone who'll listen that I have the best job in the world. After all if I was retired or had tens of millions of dollars I'd still spend a great deal of my time playing poker. Hopefully today will be just as revolutionary and today 3 years ago.

Event #12 preview

Sorry about the lack of Event# 11 preview and thanks to Jen for putting one together at the last minute. Event #12 is a $2,500 No Limit hold 'em event. Last year this event had 1,056 entrants (featuring a special appearance by yours truly) with 1st place of $594,960, 9th place was $48,575 and 100th was $2,670 (My research tells me 250th place pays nothing!) I think since today's event was limit, the last no limit under $5,000 was Event #6, and all of the no limit events have been much bigger this year, we can expect 1,200-1,300 players. This is my last shot until the main event so I hope it's a good one. Without a doubt I'm due for some good luck. Maybe I'll try putting on my socks inside out and see what happens.

As you may have guessed I'm not going to play Saturday's event which is $1,000 buy in with rebuys. The way this tournament works (all rebuy tournaments work similarly) is you start with 1,000 in chips and any time you have 1,000 or less you can buy another 1,000 chips for $1,000. So when you sit down most people will immediately buy another 1,000. If you go broke or get back below 1000 chips you can buy more. You can do this as many times as you want you just have to pay for it. You can imagine what the players who don't care about the money (but want desperately want the bracelet) do to accumulate chips while they have the chance. Last year in the $5,000 with rebuys Daniel Negranu did 22 rebuys which cost him $5,000 each! After the first 2 hours all of the insanity ends, but they give you one more chance to buy chips (called an add on) no matter how many you have. So if you want to compete you are looking at at least a $3,000 commitment and if you lose with a big hand early it could easily be $5,000 or even $7,000. I don't think things have been going well enough for me to put this kind of cash on the line.

Event #11 recap plus a comment answer or two

Today's event was $1,500 limit hold 'em and featured what will almost certainly the weakest field of the entire WSOP. The reasoning behind this assertion has three parts. Weaker players play in lower buy-in events, limit hold 'em is less popular among the best players, and most importantly there was another event ($5,000 buy-in Omaha Hi-Lo) that also took place today. For any of the top players in the world (even the one's who don't excel at Omaha) it's an easy decision to play for more money against a field of 200 than 700 for less. Winning a bracelet is paramount for the top players so getting a chance against a smaller field is the way to go for almost all of them. Sadly I was unable to capitalize on this situation.

Things started out fast and furious today. My first table had two insane players. One said he wanted to triple up or go broke as quickly as possible so he could play a $1,000 no limit tournament at the Bellagio that started at 2 p.m. Another said he told his friends he was going to play every hand until he went broke or had a big pile of chips. These guys were in almost every pot and their lose style encouraged other players (rightly so) to get involved in more pots. I found myself getting plenty of good cards early, but I kept alternating between winning a small pot and losing a big one. At the end of round 1 after playing what felt like a thousand hands I found myself staring at the exact same pile of 1500 chips that I started with.

At the beginning of round two with the limits at 50/100 things started to pick up for me. I raised to 100 with As Qs and got called by three players in the field plus the big blind. The flop was 2d 4s 7s. Even though I didn't have anything yet I had 9 spades, 3 Q's and 3 A's left in the deck that would probably make me a winner (8 of the spades would give me the best possible hand - the nuts) and with two cards to come I'd catch one of those 15 cards a shade over 50% of the time. I bet out 50 and got called by the button and the big blind. The turn was the 9h. The pot was already pretty big so I didn't think I could get rid of both of my opponents with a bet and there was a chance I might get a free look at the river if I passed on my chance to bet. I checked, the button bet 100, the big bind called and I called as well. The river was the 9s and after I bet out 100 the button quickly raised me. I watched the big blind fold and gave some thought to reraising, but thinking he might have 44 or 77 I just called. I showed my ace high flush and he showed me 5s 2s! This guy had called my preflop raise with 5 2 and he wasn't even one of the guys trying to go broke!

A little while later I caught another break. One player open called 50 from thirs position and I called behind him with Qs 9s. This is the kind of hand you'd never play in no limit, but in a limit game at a lose table, it can show some profit. We took the flop 5 way for one bet and I was happy to see a jack high flop with two spades. The small blind (mister 5 2) bet out 50 and I was the only one to call. The turn was a red K, he bet again and I raised him. Huh? What did you have again? Q 9? Ok just checking. Although this guy was playing super lose he was not an idiot (in fact I'd played against him in LA twice) and I figured if he didn't have anything I could get him to fold his hand. Plus if my bluff failed I still had a flush draw and a gutshot straight draw and if one of them hit, he would have a hard time putting me on Qs 9s since I raised him on the turn. He just called and the river was a small spade. Not thinking I'd made a flush, he fired out again and I quickly raised him. He called, showed me KJ (top two pair) and I took down the pot. My raise on the turn not only got another bet into the pot at that point, but also allowed me to earn another bet on the river that I might not have won otherwise (he almost certainly would have just check called the river fearing I'd been on a flush draw if I'd just called the turn). Every bet counts and missing out on an extra bet is the same as calling before the flop with 7 2 (actually worse because you could always hit a miracle flop with 7 2 and missing a extra bet is worth nothing).

I went on break with 3000 chips and when I came back things got even better. I won a nice pot when after making an unsuccessful bluff on the turn (the board was 4 5 6 7 and I had AQ) I rivered a pair of Q's and beat someone's 10 10. Shortly after that I won another pot which was apparently totally unmemorable, but none the less brought my stack up to 4,500 chips. Unfortunately after that the wheels came off the bus. I'd lost a fair amount of chips a little at a time and was down to about 3000 when I got a look at a flop for free in the big blind with 6 4. We took the flop 4 way and I was pleased to see 6d 4d 2h on the board. We were in round 4 with the limits at 150/300 and I bet out 150. My hand was almost certainly the best at this point, but it was very vulnerable and I needed to make anyone pay to out draw me. I got two callers and the turn was the Jd. I didn't like it. It was certainly possible that one of my callers had been on a flush draw and had made it so I checked. The player on the button bet out 300 and I was the only caller. The way he looked at the board when he J hit made me think he didn't have a flush and I hoped that he'd just hit a J. The river was a black 10 and I checked and called again. The button turned over 9d 7d and I sighed as I folded my hand.

A few minutes later a hand came up that I know I misplayed. I'd been getting really crappy cards for the past hour or so and had been doing little, but folding. Hoping that the other players would remember this and respect a raise coming from me, I made it 300 to go with Qd 10c two off the button. The player on the button made it 450 and even though I was certain I was behind, no matter what he had I only had to call 150 more with a chance to win the 975 already in the pot. The flop came down Qc 7c 3c. I had top pair and a 10 high flush draw and I decided to go for the check raise. I checked, he bet, I raised, and to my dismay he thought for a moment and reraised. I hoped he either had a flush draw or a pair, but not both. I called his reraise and the turn was a blank. I checked and called, and then did it again even though I got no help from the river. My opponent turned over two black aces and took the pot while I was left thinking "what the hell just happened." I lost 1500 chips on a hand that I easily could have thrown away before the flop. I won't go into all of the permutations of how I could have played this differently, but believe me there are a ton and just about all of them are better than how I played it. I suppose you could say it was unlucky that I ran into a such a good hand, but at the very least I'm supposed to recongnize when I'm so badly beaten. In fact if you'd stopped the hand in the middle and asked me if I thought this guy was bluffing or weak I would have said almost certainly not. So why did I keep putting more money into the pot? Instead of stopping to think things through at every juncture I just sort of went on auto pilot. I can justify every move I made, but I know I can play much better than I did on that hand. On a normal day playing online, I play somewhere between 300 and 400 hands an hour (4-6 games at a time) so I'm used to making split second decisions all day long. In live tournaments there's no need to rush and I try to remind myself to take my time, but sometimes it's hard to slow down.

I missed a few more flops, paid a few more blinds and found myself with only 475 chips. I picked up A 7 in the cutoff (one off the button) and raised to 300. The small blind thought for about 15 seconds looking like he wanted to reraise and then just called. The big blind, however made it 3 bets and I went all in for 475. The flop came down 2 3 7 and both players checked. Great! Maybe they both have big cards. The turn was an 8 and the first player bet and got raised. Uh oh, I need help. The river was an ace. Surely I have them beat now. Following some more fireworks on the river, the first player turned up A 8 for a bigger two pair and the other player turned up 77 and took the whole pot. I walked out to have an early dinner wondering how I could have blown through 4500 chips in the last hour playing limit.

Now to answer a few of Mike's questions and address one of Jakes comments. The reason why I'm not playing in any of the shoot out events, even though they should be my specialty, is a matter of scheduling. In a shoot out, each table starts with 10 players and they play down to 1 (sometimes it's more than one but in a true shoot out it's only one). The winners of each table are then combined into new tables where they do the same thing and this process continues until you're left with one table where they play for the title. My bread and butter is tournaments that start with 9 or 10 players and play down to 1 (only the ones I play pay 3 places). I've played over 5,000 of them and whenever other forms of poker turn a little sour I always go back to this format where I know I can kill the competition (it's tough for some players to shift gears as as players are eliminated -playing 9 handed is different than playing 8 handed which is different than 7 handed and so on). I'd like to play one of the shoot outs, but they are at wierd times and I chose the times of my trips to minimize down time and play the most events in the shortest amount of time.

As far as the house rake here at the WSOP goes they are taking 9% off the top of every prize pool (except the $50,000 H.O.R.S.E. event which is only 6%), but you pay in even numbers. For those of you who don't know most of the time a tournament which is nominally $1,000 will actually cost you something like $1,080 and the $80 will go to the house. For simplicity the same tournament here is $1,000 to enter but only $910 goes to the prize pool. In this case I think 9% is a little too much since the Rio and it's parent company Harrah's are making a fortune in advertising dollars, money from ESPN for the rights to air the WSOP and money earned in the super packed Casino during the 6 weeks of the WSOP (and even a splash in the restaurants and other services at the Rio). With that said, they are running a totally first class event and it takes a ton of people and resources to make that happen. The money they are taking from the prize pools isn't close to covering all of those costs, but they are still getting rich off the WSOP. Every person playing in these events has a roll of hundreds in their pocket that any normal person would be afraid to carry around. A lot of them carry around $1,000 and $5,000 chips, because $100 bills are too bulky and ALL of these people like to gamble! Shit, I bet 9% of every prize pool gets blown back the next day after every event when people are celebrating or trying to get even.

On another note Jake asked about people dressing up like fools and I saw a whole crew today. A few minutes after the tournament a half dozen guys in bright purple, electric yellow, and neon blue valure matching cowboy pimp suits walked into the room. They had on oversized hats made of the same material as their suits and wore big Elvis style sun glasses. Also all of their cuffs, collars and a rim around their hats was white and black leopard print. There were 3 purples and only 1 yellow so I suspect the rest of the crew might have been somewhere else. A few of the guys at my table made comments like "hey is there a new gay strip club that just opened around here?" Dressing up in Vegas is fun, but noon is a little early if you ask me.

Event #11 Review

Some bad news, I just heard from Dave and he's been eliminated. He's going to get something to eat and tell us all about it later tonight.

Event #11 Preview/Update

Since Dave didn't put up his usual event preview for today, I figured I'd post the info for everyone.

Today's event is a $1500 Limit Hold'em event. It started at 12:00 this afternoon with 713 players. Last year the winner was Eric Froehlich, who set the record for youngest person to win a World Series bracelet, at 21 years and 3 months. First was $361,910, 9th was $28,950, and 100th was $1590.

Dave talked to EB during the first break, and at that time Dave had doubled up to around $3000 in chips, so things are starting out well. The second break should be around 4:30, and EB will probably talk to him again then, and he'll post a comment here to tell you the details of what's going on so far!

A few comment responses.

Thank you all for your comments and questions I figured I respond to a few of them now.

Dad,

Thanks for the advice. Being positive is definitely important. The older I get the more I try to focus on having a good attitude even when things aren't going my way. I know you have a lot of trouble with pessimism so I wish you the best in your pursuit of turning negative thoughts into positive ones. I was at a table with a guy today who along with me and a third player were all sitting on the right side of the table. I lost a big pot to the third player and this guy turns to me and says "hey at least the chips are coming to this side of the table." Clearly a "glass is half full" kind of guy.

Jake,

I'm sorry to say that no one has really stood out as far as being dressed like an idiot. I think the freaks really come out for the main event and I'll do my best to chronicle them at that time. As far as good luck charms go this one guy had a full sized garden gnome that he kept on his lap at all times and would whisper to in between hands...not really. That would be awesome though.

Shawn and Amanda,

Thanks for the rooting. Good luck with the baby! Jen and I will be reading your blog and look forward to seeing you around the holidays.

Jennie,

My friends get all of their cleverness and vocabulary by watching me! Sweatpants are part of the ubiquitous "three S's" in the poker world...Sweatpants, Stubble and Stank! Actually that's more of a problem at the lower limits. Most of the people I've interacted with have had excellent hygiene and in general seem like top quality people.

Carolyn,

I'm glad you and my Dad are enjoying the blog. Hopefully it well help you get more out of watching poker on TV. I'm definitely determined to make it in this industry. Being here has been very inspiring. It makes me realize how much I want to make it big. I want people asking me for my autograph. I want to be on ESPN. I want to be cheered. I'm going to do whatever it takes to make it happen. Thanks for your encouragement.

Timm,

Hopefully we can get together the next time I'm in MD. My only good luck ritual is I have to fill my underpants with $100 in quarters every time I play. If I have to make an emergency trip to the men's room after a night of Mexican food it sounds like someone hit a slot jackpot in my stall. Actually I do whatever I can to avoid superstition, but I am constantly fascinated by the things people believe and the things they do because they can't understand and internalize randomness.

Kristen,

It's very exciting to see and play against the top players (I'm actually starting to get used to it though). While other players at my table seem to be upset about it, I relish the opportunity to challenge myself against the best. Also at the very least I know that they are strong players and can use that to my advantage by using certain tactics and complex deception that might not work on less observant or weaker players. Also while I know something about them, they know nothing about me. Another advantage is now that I've played against so many of these guys it's going to be impossible for anyone I might encounter in a normal game to intimidate me in any way. It's harder to beat someone if you think they're really great and must be outplaying you at every turn. It's pretty hard to be afraid of some dude after you've played against a few world champs.

Mike,

Thanks for the congratulations and best wishes. As far as Matt goes, I wish he was here, but he's been in New York and New Jersey almost the entire time I've been here. He has no plans to play anything except for the main event. I'm thinking about organizing a pool where everyone guesses in what place I'll finish and what place he'll finish and whoever has the smallest total margin of error wins the pool. That seems like the kind of thing you're likely to win.

Ewa,

I hope you and Ryan enjoy the blog. There's nothing wrong with not gambling. It can be an expensive hobby. I demand that you keep your fingers actually crossed for a least 8 hours a day!

Thanks again to everyone for your comments and good luck wishes!

Event 10 Recap

We started today's $1,500 stud event with 466 players (I think) and 1500 chips each. This event really brought out the old guard. Before about 1990 7 card stud was the most popular game around and while most new players don't bother to learn to play it's still a favorite of the seniors. On a side note, I'm sure it would surprise some of you to learn that you can't play 5 card draw anywhere. Even though it's the first game everyone learns, it's a totally dead game an no casinos that I know of spread it at any limit. I understand why (no one likes it because it only has 2 betting rounds and not much action), but it's always amazed me.

Things started out great today. I won what I thought was a big pot on the first hand of the tournament when I made a queen high flush, but when I counted down my stack I was only up to about 1700. Today was the first time the maroon $5 chips made an appearance and they made some medium sized pots look really big. Stud is played limit (as opposed to no limit or pot limit) 99% of the time and the first limit of the day was 10/20 with what amounted to a 1.875 chip ante. It sure is hard to figure out how much you've got when you have a pile of 1.875 denomination chips! Actually what they did for the first level, rather than use $1 chips, each player was responsible for anteing 15 chips once every 8 hands. 10/20 is a very small limit for 1500 chips and the first round seemed pretty insignificant (a standard buy in for a 10/20 cash game would be around $300 - even a very big pot would be around $250 and a small pot might be less than $50). I did use the first hour to get a feel for my opponents and had everyone pretty well figured out by the start of the second round.

Other than the first hand I struggled a little in the opening stages. Towards the end of round 2 (20/40 limits) I found myself with only 900 chips left after missing a few draws and having a few big pairs get squashed. Then I went on a mini rush. It started when I won a pot after starting with K J Q (in this notation the last card is the one face up). I raised the $5 bring in (the player with the lowest initial up card has a forced bet called the bring in which is larger than an ante but smaller than a full bet) to 20 and got called in two places. After a bet on 4th street, I paired my Q on 5th street (when each player has 2 down cards and 3 cards up) and got both players to fold. On the next hand I made Aces up (The phrase "blank up" means two pair with blank being the larger of the two pairs) and got good action from kings up. As I was stacking my chips from that pot I got dealt a 2 face up and looked down at my hole cards. They were both 2's! Starting with three of a kind is called being rolled up and it only happens once in every 425 hands. I had the bring in and put in $5 the minimum amount even though I could have put in $20. I didn't want to give away the strength of my hand and I was happy to see one of my opponents make it $20 to go with a red 5 showing. Another player joined the raiser and myself and we took 4th street 3 way. On 4th street the player with the 5 showing caught another 5, bet out 20 and got called by the other player. It was time to be a little more aggressive so I made it 60 to go (when there is a pair showing on 4th street every player has the option to bet or raise either a small bet- 20 in this case - or a large bet -40 in this case). I started with the 2c as my up card and had picked up another club on 4th street so I was hoping this aggression would be interpreted as pushing a flush draw. The player with 55 raised to 100, the other player folded and I popped it again to 140. There was no way this guy had raised on 3rd street with a pair of 5's so there was no way he had three fives now. Unless he had four of a kind I had him beat. He called and I hoped to NOT catch a club on 5th street because if I did I thought it would kill my action (I wouldn't make any more money because he'd think I had a flush). Sadly the Ac came off the deck and into my hand. Of course, I bet anyway and expected to win the pot right there. To my surprise my opponent, who'd caught a J raised me! What the hell is going on here? Doesn't he see my 3 clubs showing? I considered that maybe he had JJ in the hole and had made a full house (if he did my only out was the last 2 in the deck), but my hand was way too strong to fold. On sixth street I caught a red 7 and he caught another J. This was actually a good card for him to catch from my standpoint, because even though it made his hand look scary it made it much less likely that I was behind (if he's got two J's showing what are the chances he has two more in the hole?). It all comes back to third street. For him to have a J or a 5 in the hole it means he raised with X J 5 or X 5 5. What ever you put in place of either X it doesn't make a raising hand for a reasonable player. Maybe he started with 5 5 5 or J J 5, but since he has 2 of each showing, both are VERY unlikely. I figured he started with AA or KK in the hole. I just called figuring that if I raised he might fold two pair. On the river he checked, I bet, he called and I took the pot with my trips.

I went on my first break with 1700 chips and by the start of the 4th round an hour later I had it up to 2100. Then I went totally card dead. Over the next two hours I was slowly ground down. If going out of a no limit event is like getting shot this was like getting killed by a moderate amount of radiation. There isn't much you can do in a limit event when you get a ton of garbage hands especially when you're at a table with plenty of action (you're not going to bluff out several players when all you can bet is a small fraction of the pot).

To make matters worse at the start of round 4 I got moved to the most annoying table I've been at in a long time. To my right was a guy who looked like a South American gigolo (longish jet black hair, black collared shirt unbuttoned 3 buttons, HUGE sunglasses and a large silver pendant that was an eagle with it's wings spread hanging from a thick silver chain), but had what sounded like a French accent. To my left was a guy who was an advertisement for not smoking. This guy had ratty graying hair, heavy gray stubble and looked 60 even though he was probably in his early 40's. He rounded out this look with a faded black tee shirt and a half smoked cigarette pressed between his lips at all times (classy!). At the end of every hand that he played SAG (South American Gigolo) would tell everyone what he had and why he did what he did in the LOUDEST speaking voice you could imagine. Then smoking man (along with a few others) would tell him how no one cared and could we please just move on the the next hand. SAG would then say ok fine, but continue telling us about the previous hand. Or worse they'd hit SAG with some heavy sarcasm that would go right over his head so it only encouraged him. It would go something like this:
SAG: (in LOUD thick French accent) Did ewe see what I have? I have stride on fifth streed, but I know ewe have flish draw so I bit. Muney means nutheeng to me. I have plenty chips, but I bit to make ewe pay for flish. Then you make flish so eye fold. Do ewe see?
Smoking man: I know you had a straight. I think everyone knew you had it.
SAG: ewe see I make stride on fifth streed.
Smoking man: I know you had a straight. I don't care. Let's just move on to the next hand.
SAG: I know you have flish so I fold. Do ewe see? I had stride.
Other player: (with massive sarcasm)You had a straight? Really?
SAG: Yis I have stride on fifth streed.
Other player: (with more massive sarcasm) Really? Congratulations.
SAG: Yis I have stride on fifth streed.
Other player: (with even more massive sarcasm)You had a straight? Really?
SAG: Yis I have stride on fifth streed.
Other player: NO ONE CARES!
SAG: ewe need luck to win in the game. HA HA HA! (laughing for no apparent reason)

This would go on and on every time this guy played a hand. When I got to the table they were talking like this about a hand that happened five hands earlier. After an hour I was mercifully moved to a new game.

At my new table I found Mark Seif. Last year Mark won bracelets in back to back events (impressive as hell I think). I'd played with him in a $2,500 no limit hold 'em event I played in LA in the spring and was REALLY impressed with his play. Some of the poker celebs I've played against leave me thinking "this guy isn't any better than me," but Mark always comes across as unbelievably good. It seems like he always knows EXACTLY what his opponents have and takes maximum advantage of it. Unfortunately I didn't have much of a chance to test myself against him, because I was down to about 1000 chips with limits of 75/150 with a 15 chip ante. Shortly after arriving at my new table, I got involved in one hand where I started with Kc Jc 9c and caught the 8c on 4th street. I missed my flush draw and was lucky to escape only losing 390 chips on the hand. I was on total fumes and I knew if I didn't make a move soon nothing would save me. If I played a hand at all I was almost certainly going to have to commit all of my chips to it. I picked up A 6 6 and thought "here we go." But after a raise and a reraise in front of me I was forced to fold. Two hands later I picked up 6 6 J and decided to go for it. After a bring in of 25 and a call, I made it 75 to go. The woman to my left made it 150 and after the two other players folded I put her all in for 220. She turned up 9 9 8, but I caught a 6 on fourth street and won the pot with three of a kind. Great, I won a pot and busted someone, but I still don't have any chips! The limits went up to 100/200 and I with about 600 chips I decided to make a move with A Q 8. One player had called the 30 chip bring in and I made it 100 to go. The player to my left called as did both others. I caught an 8 giving me a pair and 3 clubs on 4th street and bet out. The player to my left made it 200 with a 5 and a 10 showing and I figured I've got half of my chips in this pot I'm getting them all in. We got them all in on fifth street and when the hand was over my 8's and 6's lost to his 10's and 5's. Two more tries on this leg.